Tag: climate-change

Microbes that breathe rust could help save Earth’s oceans

Microbes that breathe iron and eat sulfide could be quietly saving Earth’s oceans.

Source:University of Vienna

Summary:Researchers from the University of Vienna discovered MISO bacteria that use iron minerals to oxidize toxic sulfide, creating energy and producing sulfate. This biological process reshapes how scientists understand global sulfur and iron cycles. By outpacing chemical reactions, these microbes could help stop the spread of oceanic dead zones and maintain ecological balance.Share:

    

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Microbes That Breathe Rust
MISO bacteria “breathe” iron minerals while detoxifying sulfide, driving a newly discovered biological process that connects global sulfur, iron, and carbon cycles. Credit: Shutterstock

An international research team led by microbiologists Marc Mussmann and Alexander Loy at the University of Vienna has uncovered a completely new type of microbial metabolism. The newly identified microorganisms, known as MISO bacteria, are able to “breathe” iron minerals by oxidizing toxic sulfide. The scientists discovered that the reaction between hydrogen sulfide — a poisonous gas — and solid iron minerals is not only a chemical process, but also a biological one. In this newly revealed pathway, adaptable microbes living in marine sediments and wetland soils remove toxic sulfide and use it as an energy source for growth. These bacteria may also play an important role in preventing the expansion of oxygen-depleted “dead zones” in aquatic ecosystems.

The findings were recently published in Nature.

How Microbes Power Earth’s Element Cycles

The movement of key elements such as carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and iron through the environment occurs through what are known as biogeochemical cycles. These transformations take place through reduction and oxidation (redox) reactions that move elements between air, water, soil, rocks, and living things. Because these cycles regulate greenhouse gases, they have a direct influence on Earth’s climate and temperature balance. Microorganisms drive nearly every step of these processes, using substances like sulfur and iron for respiration in much the same way humans rely on oxygen to metabolize food.

Sulfur and iron are particularly essential for microbial communities that live in oxygen-deprived habitats such as ocean floors, wetlands, and sediments. Sulfur can exist as a gas in the atmosphere, as sulfate dissolved in seawater, or locked within mineral deposits. Iron, on the other hand, shifts between different chemical forms depending on the availability of oxygen. When microbes process sulfur, they frequently change the form of iron at the same time, creating a tightly linked relationship between the two elements. This coupling affects nutrient cycling and influences the production or consumption of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Understanding these connections helps scientists predict how natural systems respond to environmental changes, including pollution and global warming.

Microbes That Use Iron to Eliminate Toxic Sulfide

“We show that this environmentally important redox reaction is not solely chemical,” says Alexander Loy, research group leader at CeMESS, the Centre for Microbiology and Environmental Systems Science at the University of Vienna. “Microorganisms can also harness it for growth.”

The team’s discovery reveals a new form of microbial energy production called MISO. This process connects the reduction of iron(III) oxide with the oxidation of sulfide. Unlike a purely chemical reaction, MISO directly generates sulfate, skipping intermediate steps in the sulfur cycle. “MISO bacteria remove toxic sulfide and may help prevent the expansion of so-called ‘dead zones’ in aquatic environments, while fixing carbon dioxide for growth — similar to plants,” adds Marc Mussmann, senior scientist at CeMESS.

A Fast, Widespread Process That Shapes the Planet

In laboratory experiments, the researchers found that the MISO reaction carried out by microbes happens faster than the same reaction when it occurs chemically. This indicates that microorganisms are likely the main force behind this transformation in natural environments. “Diverse bacteria and archaea possess the genetic capacity for MISO,” explains lead author Song-Can Chen, “and they are found in a wide range of natural and human-made environments.”

According to the study, MISO activity in marine sediments could be responsible for as much as 7% of all global sulfide oxidation to sulfate. This process is fueled by the steady flow of reactive iron entering the oceans from rivers and melting glaciers. The research, supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) as part of the ‘Microbiomes Drive Planetary Health’ Cluster of Excellence, identifies a new biological mechanism linking the cycling of sulfur, iron, and carbon in oxygen-free environments.

“This discovery demonstrates the metabolic ingenuity of microorganisms and highlights their indispensable role in shaping Earth’s global element cycles,” concludes Alexander Loy.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251109013252.htm

Deep-sea mining starves life in the ocean’s twilight zone

New research reveals that deep-sea mining waste could disrupt one of Earth’s most vital but least understood ecosystems.

Source:University of Hawaii at Manoa

Summary:Scientists have discovered that deep-sea mining plumes can strip vital nutrition from the ocean’s twilight zone, replacing natural food with nutrient-poor sediment. The resulting “junk food” effect could starve life across entire marine ecosystems.Share:

    

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Deep-Sea Mining Starves Life in the Ocean
Nodules on the abyssal seafloor in the Clarion Clipperton Zone with a mud cloud from a scientific remotely-operated vehicle (ROV) touching down. Credit: UH/NOAA DeepCCZ Expedition

A new study from the University of Hawai’i (UH) at Mānoa, published on November 6 in Nature Communications, provides the first direct evidence that waste from deep-sea mining could disrupt vital ecosystems in the Pacific Ocean’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ). This area, one of the most biologically rich regions of the deep sea, is now the focus of growing industrial interest. Researchers found that sediment discharged during mining operations could harm marine life in the midwater “twilight zone,” a key habitat between 200 and 1,500 meters below the surface that supports vast populations of tiny drifting animals called zooplankton — the foundation of the ocean’s food web.

The team determined that 53% of zooplankton and 60% of micronekton, which feed on zooplankton, would be affected by mining waste discharge. Such disturbances could ripple through the food chain, ultimately impacting larger predators such as fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.

Murky Plumes and “Junk Food” Sediment

“When the waste released by mining activity enters the ocean, it creates water as murky as the mud-filled Mississippi River. The pervasive particles dilute the nutritious, natural food particles usually consumed by tiny, drifting Zooplankton,” said Michael Dowd, lead author of the study and a graduate student in Oceanography at the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST).

“Micronekton, small shrimp, fish and other animals that swim, feed on zooplankton. Some migrate between the depths and near surface waters and they are consumed by fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Zooplankton’s exposure to junk food sediment has the potential to disrupt the entire food web.”

Measuring the Nutritional Impact of Deep-Sea Mining

The research, titled “Deep-sea mining discharge can disrupt midwater food webs,” examined the effects of sediment plumes released during a 2022 mining test in the CCZ. This vast region is targeted for the extraction of polymetallic nodules that contain valuable minerals such as cobalt, nickel, and copper — key components for electric vehicles and renewable technologies.

By collecting and analyzing water samples from the depths where waste was discharged, the scientists found that mining particles contained far fewer amino acids, an important measure of nutritional quality, than the natural particles that typically nourish marine organisms.

“This isn’t just about mining the seafloor; it’s about reducing the food for entire communities in the deep sea,” said co-author Erica Goetze, a SOEST oceanography professor and marine zooplankton specialist. “We found that many animals at the depth of discharge depend on naturally occurring small detrital particles — the very food that mining plume particles replace.”

At present, around 1.5 million square kilometers of the CCZ are licensed for deep-sea mining exploration, reflecting the surge in global demand for minerals used in low-carbon technologies.

Disrupting an Ecosystem Built on Scarcity

During the mining process, nodules are collected from the seafloor along with surrounding sediments and seawater, then pumped to a surface vessel where nodules are separated from the waste material. The leftover sediment and fine nodule fragments are then released back into the ocean. Some companies have proposed releasing this waste within the twilight zone, but the environmental consequences of such practices have remained largely unknown — until now.

These findings underscore a major regulatory gap, as no international rules currently govern where or how mining waste can be discharged.

The twilight zone teems with life, including krill, squid, fish, octopus, and delicate jelly-like species. Many of these organisms travel upward toward the surface each night to feed and then descend again by day, transporting carbon to the deep ocean in the process. This vertical migration helps maintain the planet’s carbon balance and supports the health of marine ecosystems worldwide.

“Our research suggests that mining plumes don’t just create cloudy water — they change the quality of what’s available to eat, especially for animals that can’t easily swim away,” said co-author Jeffrey Drazen, a deep-sea ecologist and SOEST professor of oceanography. “It’s like dumping empty calories into a system that’s been running on a finely tuned diet for hundreds of years.”

Global Implications for Marine Food Webs

The study raises concerns that large-scale mining could trigger widespread and long-lasting changes in ocean ecosystems if it proceeds without strict safeguards. Even commercial fisheries could be affected; for instance, tuna populations migrate through the CCZ, meaning the impacts of mining could extend to seafood consumed around the world.

“Deep-sea mining has not yet begun at a commercial scale, so this is our chance to make informed decisions,” said co-author Brian Popp, SOEST professor of Earth sciences and an expert in marine stable isotope biogeochemistry. “If we don’t understand what’s at stake in the midwater, we risk harming ecosystems we’re only just beginning to study.”

A Call for Responsible Regulation

The authors hope their results will guide policy discussions currently underway at the International Seabed Authority and inform environmental reviews conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They stress the importance of developing international rules to protect marine ecosystems from surface waters to the deep sea.

“Before commercial deep-sea mining begins, it is essential to carefully consider the depth at which mining waste is discharged,” added Drazen. “The fate of these mining waste plumes and their impact on ocean ecosystems varies with depth, and improper discharge could cause harm to communities from the surface to the seafloor.”

Additional contributors to the study include UH Mānoa oceanography graduate students Victoria Assad and Alexus Cazares-Nuesser, and oceanography professor Angelicque White.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251108012850.htm

Laser satellites expose a secret Antarctic carbon burst

Source:Chinese Academy of Sciences Headquarters

Summary:A new study shows that the Southern Ocean releases far more carbon dioxide in winter than once thought. By combining laser satellite data with AI analysis, scientists managed to “see” through the polar darkness for the first time. The results reveal a 40% undercount in winter emissions, changing how researchers view the ocean’s carbon balance and its impact on climate models.Share:

    

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Satellites Expose Secret Antarctic Carbon Burst
Researchers have found that the Southern Ocean emits about 40% more carbon dioxide during the Antarctic winter than previous estimates suggested. Using laser-based satellite technology, they uncovered a hidden seasonal flux that redefines the ocean’s role in the global carbon cycle. Credit: Shutterstock

A team of scientists has found that the Southern Ocean emits far more carbon dioxide (CO2) during the lightless Antarctic winter than researchers once believed. According to their new study, this wintertime release of CO2 has been underestimated by as much as 40%.

The research was led by scientists from the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources (SIO-MNR), and the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology (NIGLAS) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Their results were published in Science Advances on Nov. 5.

The Ocean’s Role in Earth’s Carbon Balance

The Southern Ocean is a major regulator of the global carbon cycle, absorbing a large share of the carbon released by human activity. Yet despite its importance, it remains the “largest source of uncertainty” in global CO2 flux calculations.

That uncertainty comes from a lack of winter observations. For months each year, the Southern Ocean lies in complete darkness and is lashed by extreme weather, making direct measurement nearly impossible. During this time, the region becomes an “observational black box.” Traditional satellites, which depend on reflected sunlight (passive sensors) to detect ocean properties, cannot collect data under these conditions, leaving scientists reliant on incomplete or estimated models.

Using Lasers to See in the Dark

To overcome this limitation, the researchers used an advanced approach that combined 14 years of data from a laser-based satellite instrument called LIDAR (on the CALIPSO mission) with machine learning analysis.

LIDAR, unlike passive sensors, sends out its own light signals, working similarly to radar but with lasers instead of radio waves. This technology allowed the team to observe the ocean even during the polar night and create the first continuous, observation-based record of winter CO2 exchange in the Southern Ocean.

The results revealed that earlier estimates had missed nearly 40% of the Southern Ocean’s wintertime CO2output. “Our findings suggest that the Southern Ocean’s role in the global carbon cycle is more complex and dynamic than previously known,” said Prof. Kun Shi of NIGLAS.

Rethinking the Ocean’s Carbon Dynamics

Beyond updating the numbers, the study redefines how scientists understand carbon movement in the Southern Ocean. The team introduced a new “three-loop framework” to explain how CO2 exchange varies across different regions.

In the Antarctic Loop (south of 60°S), physical factors such as sea ice and salinity are the main drivers of CO2exchange. In the Polar Front Loop (45°S-60°S), the interaction between atmospheric CO2 and biological activity (chlorophyll) becomes more influential. Meanwhile, in the Subpolar Loop (north of 45°S), sea surface temperature plays the dominant role.

Global Climate Implications

Filling this long-standing data gap could lead to more accurate global carbon budgets, which form the foundation of climate projections used by organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251108014024.htm

Antarctica’s collapse may already be unstoppable, scientists warn

Source:Australian National University

Summary:Researchers warn Antarctica is undergoing abrupt changes that could trigger global consequences. Melting ice, collapsing ice shelves, and disrupted ocean circulation threaten sea levels, ecosystems, and climate stability. Wildlife such as penguins and krill face growing extinction risks. Scientists stress that only rapid emission reductions can avert irreversible damage.Share:

    

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Antarctica’s Collapse May Already Be Unstoppable
Antarctica’s ice and ecosystems are destabilizing faster than expected, threatening coastal cities and wildlife alike. Experts say urgent emission cuts are the only way to stop a cascade of irreversible changes. Credit: Shutterstock

Antarctica faces the possibility of sudden and potentially irreversible changes to its ice, oceans, and ecosystems. Scientists warn that without a sharp global reduction in carbon emissions, these transformations could have serious effects not only for the continent but also for Australia and the rest of the planet.

The warning comes from new research published in Nature by scientists from The Australian National University (ANU) and the University of New South Wales (UNSW), together with researchers from all of Australia’s major Antarctic science institutions.

The team found that multiple large-scale changes are now unfolding at once across Antarctica and that these processes are tightly “interlinked,” intensifying global pressure on the climate system, sea levels, and ecosystems.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: A Collapse in Motion

Researchers identified the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) as being at extreme risk of collapsing as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to climb. A full collapse of the WAIS could raise global sea levels by more than three meters, endangering coastal populations and major cities worldwide.

Dr. Nerilie Abram, Chief Scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) and lead author of the study, warned that such an event would have “catastrophic consequences for generations to come.”

She noted that “rapid change has already been detected across Antarctica’s ice, oceans and ecosystems, and this is set to worsen with every fraction of a degree of global warming.”

Sea Ice Decline and Worsening Feedback Loops

According to Dr. Abram, the sharp decline in Antarctic sea ice is another alarming signal. “The loss of Antarctic sea ice is another abrupt change that has a whole range of knock-on effects, including making the floating ice shelves around Antarctica more susceptible to wave-driven collapse,” she said.

The reduction in sea ice, together with the weakening of deep ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean, indicates that these systems are more vulnerable to rising temperatures than previously believed.

As sea ice disappears, more solar heat is absorbed by the ocean’s surface, amplifying regional warming. Dr. Abram added that other critical systems may soon reach a point of no return, including the ice shelves that hold back parts of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Consequences Reaching Australia and Beyond

Professor Matthew England from UNSW and the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), who co-authored the study, explained that these rapid Antarctic shifts could have severe effects for Australia.

“Consequences for Australia include rising sea levels that will impact our coastal communities, a warmer and deoxygenated Southern Ocean being less able to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, leading to more intense warming in Australia and beyond, and increased regional warming from Antarctic sea ice loss,” he said.

Wildlife and Ecosystems in Jeopardy

The loss of sea ice is already threatening Antarctic wildlife. Professor England warned that emperor penguin populations are facing greater extinction risks because their chicks depend on stable sea ice to mature. “The loss of entire colonies of chicks has been seen right around the Antarctic coast because of early sea ice breakout events, and some colonies have experienced multiple breeding failure events over the last decade,” he said.

Other species are also under threat. The researchers reported that krill, as well as several penguin and seal species, could experience major declines, while key phytoplankton that form the base of the food web are being affected by ocean warming and acidification.

Professor England added that a potential collapse in Antarctic overturning circulation would be disastrous for marine ecosystems, preventing vital nutrients from reaching surface waters where marine life depends on them.

Urgent Global Action Needed

Dr. Abram emphasized that while efforts through the Antarctic Treaty System remain vital, they will not be sufficient on their own. “While critically important, these measures will not help to avoid climate-related impacts that are already beginning to unfold,” she said.

She urged that “the only way to avoid further abrupt changes and their far-reaching impacts is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to limit global warming to as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible.”

Governments, industries, and communities, she added, must now include these accelerating Antarctic changes in their planning for climate adaptation, especially in regions like Australia that will be directly affected.

A Global Effort to Understand Antarctica’s Rapid Change

The research represents a collaboration among leading Antarctic experts from Australia, South Africa, Switzerland, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. It was led by the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), working with Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership (AAPP), and the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD).

This study supports the objectives of the Australian Antarctic Science Decadal Strategy 2025-2035, a long-term initiative to understand and address the sweeping changes underway in Earth’s southernmost region.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251106003941.htm#google_vignette

Exclusive-Climate Fund Backs $6 Billion Jordan Water Project With Its Largest Deal

By Reuters

U.S. News & World Report

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People arrive to attend the Pledging Conference of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for the First Replenishment in Paris, France, October 25, 2019. REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol

By Simon Jessop, Andrea Shalal and Suleiman Al-Khalidi

LONDON/AMMAN (Reuters) -The world’s largest multilateral climate fund has made its largest financial commitment to date to help build a $6 billion water desalination project in Jordan, its top executive said.

 

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The Green Climate Fund’s backing comes ahead of the COP30 event in Brazil in November and a decade after the Paris Agreement, which named the fund as a primary way to finance efforts to curb global warming.

“It will transform the country,” Mafalda Duarte told Reuters, adding that the commitment to Jordan’s Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project marked the fund’s “highest investment in a single project”.

A grant and loan totalling $295 million was approved at a board meeting in South Korea on Wednesday with the aim of drawing in financing from others, including the International Finance Corporation and private lenders.

ONE OF THE WORLD’S LARGEST DESALINATION PROJECTS

The desalination project, one of the largest in the world, will eventually directly serve nearly half the population of Jordan, which has the second-lowest water availability of any country on the planet.

That was slated to get worse, with a 4 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures and a 21% decrease in rainfall projected by the end of the century, leading to increased evaporation, reduced groundwater and more frequent droughts.

MORE:  Places the U.S. Government Warns Not to Travel Right Now

Such a scenario has led Jordan’s leader to describe the Meridiam and SUEZ-led project as a strategic priority.

The U.S., which considers Jordan a key regional ally, has pledged $300 million in grants and $1 billion in loans for the project, Jordanian government officials told Reuters, while other countries in the region were expected to contribute.

“The project is a strategic project to desalinate and transport 300 million cubic meters of water every year to most parts of the kingdom,” Jordan’s Minister of Water and Irrigation, Raed Abu Soud, told Reuters.

24 PROJECTS UP FOR GCF BOARD MEETING APPROVAL

A senior official involved with the project said the GCF money would allow it to lower the cost of water by 10 cents a litre and help the government save $1 billion over its lifetime.

It would also allow the IFC to offer better loan terms, which will mean cheaper private sector financing, he added.

The project in Jordan is one of 24 up for discussion at the GCF board meeting. If all are approved, they would total $1.4 billion and mark the fund’s biggest ever financial disbursement.

The GCF this year moved to speed up its decision-making as part of a broader overhaul of the world’s multilateral financial system – and the COP30 talks will look at ways to do even more.

While MDBs were still not doing enough to mobilise private sector capital, their stakeholders needed to be realistic about how much risk they can take, Duarte said.

(Editing by Alexander Smith and Thomas Derpinghaus)

Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.

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https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-10-29/exclusive-climate-fund-backs-6-billion-jordan-water-project-with-its-largest-deal

A Wrinkle in the Negotiations Over Allocating the Colorado River 

There is urgency for the seven states that rely on the Colorado River to reach an agreement on how to keep water levels high enough in its two major reservoirs. Climate change is threatening water delivery and power systems as the region becomes drier.

Lake Mead, 2022  |  Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The states—Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and California—have until next month to agree on alternatives to keep the system afloat for the next couple of decades and submit them to the Bureau of Reclamation. If they don’t, the bureau will propose its own plan for cuts to allocations from the river, which supplies 40 million people and agriculture.

However, there’s a wrinkle in the negotiations. A report released by the bureau on February 8 concluded that 1.3 million acre-feet of water was lost annually to evaporation and transpiration in the three Lower Basin states of Arizona, California, and Nevada. Water lost to evaporation and transpiration has not been considered under the current rules. Despite evaporation and transpiration, the three lower states have continued to draw down from the reservoirs that are threatened by aridification.

Now, all of the Colorado River Basin states, except California, have submitted a letter to the federal government proposing that in times of low water levels, there would be cuts in allocations—most heavily to California—that take evaporation and transpiration into account. The Los Angeles Times reports that agencies in Southern California would be required to endure the largest cuts, up to 32 percent for evaporation losses if Lake Powell and Lake Mead hit crisis levels. California has proposed a more modest plan that it argues does not rewrite the rules of the river, which are based on historic water rights. Because of the winter snowpack last year, recent storms, and conservation, water levels at Lake Mead, the country’s largest reservoir, are currently about 40 feet higher than was projected.

Added to the federal government’s deadline for the states to come up with a plan for cutbacks, is the fear that a different administration after the November election could change those involved at the federal level.

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https://h2oradio.org/this-week-in-water/the-lies-of-the-plastics-industry-exposed

Earth has hit its first climate tipping point, scientists warn

Source:Goethe University FrankfurtSummary:Global scientists warn that humanity is on the verge of crossing irreversible climate thresholds, with coral reefs already at their tipping point and polar ice sheets possibly beyond recovery. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 reveals how rising temperatures could trigger a cascade of system collapses, from the Amazon rainforest turning to savanna to the potential shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.Share:

    

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Earth Has Hit Its First Climate Tipping Point
Rising temperatures have pushed coral reefs to the brink and may have already destabilized parts of the polar ice sheets. Scientists warn of cascading climate failures but see hope in emerging positive social and technological shifts. Credit: Shutterstock

In a recently released report, a team of international climate scientists warns that saving many tropical coral reefs from destruction caused by rising ocean temperatures will now require extraordinary effort. The researchers also conclude that some regions of the polar ice sheets may have already crossed their tipping points. If this melting continues, it could cause irreversible sea level rise measured in several meters.

Scientists Warn of Cascading Climate System Failures

Among the lead authors of the Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (GTPR 2025) is Nico Wunderling, Professor of Computational Earth System Sciences at Goethe University’s Center for Critical Computational Studies | C3S and researcher at the Senckenberg Research Institute Frankfurt. Together with several co-authors, he led the chapter on “Earth System Tipping Points and Risks.”

Wunderling explains: “The devastating consequences that arise when climate tipping points are crossed pose a massive threat to our societies. There is even a risk of the tipping of one climate system potentially triggering or accelerating the tipping of others. This risk increases significantly once the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded.”

The World Nears a Cascade of Climate Tipping Points

According to the report, scientists have identified roughly two dozen parts of the global climate system that could reach tipping points. The first of these, involving tropical coral reefs, appears to have already been surpassed. The report projects that the global average temperature will rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. This would mark the start of a period in which multiple tipping points could be crossed, with profound outcomes such as rapid sea level rise from melting ice sheets or global temperature disruptions caused by a breakdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. The authors also recommend actions to prevent further temperature increases.

The coordinating lead author of the GTPR 2025 is Tim Lenton, Professor at the University of Exeter’s (UK) Global Systems Institute. More than 100 scientists from over 20 countries contributed to the report, which was released ahead of the 30th World Climate Conference beginning November 10, 2025, in Belém, Brazil. First published in 2023, the Global Tipping Points Report has already gained recognition as a leading reference for assessing both the risks and potential benefits of negative and positive tipping points within the Earth system and human societies.

Understanding Climate Tipping Points

Climate tipping points have become a major focus in climate research only within the past two decades. The GTPR authors describe a climate-induced tipping point as a level of warming at which key natural systems — such as coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest, or major ocean currents — undergo self-reinforcing and often irreversible change.

For example, once tropical coral reefs surpass their temperature threshold, they begin to die even if humanity later stabilizes or reduces global warming. The scientists warn that more tipping points may soon follow, as some lie near or at 1.5°C of warming. Systems already at risk include the Amazon rainforest (which could shift toward savanna), the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica (which could raise sea levels by several meters), and the Atlantic Ocean circulation (whose collapse could sharply cool Europe).

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251029002920.htm

Scientists predict a wetter, greener future for the Sahara Desert

Source:University of Illinois ChicagoSummary:UIC researchers predict that the Sahara Desert could see up to 75% more rain by the end of this century due to rising global temperatures. Using 40 climate models, the team found widespread precipitation increases across Africa, though some regions may dry out. The results suggest a major rebalancing of the continent’s climate. Scientists stress that adaptation planning is essential to prepare for both wetter and drier futures.Share:

    

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A Wetter, Greener Future for the Sahara Desert
Climate models suggest that global warming could dramatically increase rainfall in the Sahara and other parts of Africa. Credit: Shutterstock

The Sahara Desert is known as one of the driest places on Earth, receiving only about 3 inches of precipitation each year — roughly one-tenth of what falls in Chicago.

However, new research from the University of Illinois Chicago (UIC) suggests that this could change dramatically within the next few decades. By the latter half of the 21st century, rising global temperatures may bring much more rain to the region. The study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, predicts that the Sahara could receive up to 75% more precipitation than its historical average. Similar increases are also projected for parts of southeastern and south-central Africa under extreme climate scenarios.

Rising Rainfall Could Reshape Africa 

“Changing rainfall patterns will affect billions of people, both in and outside Africa,” explained lead author Thierry Ndetatsin Taguela, a postdoctoral climate researcher in UIC’s College of Liberal Arts and Sciences. “We have to start planning to face these changes, from flood management to drought-resistant crops.”

Taguela emphasized that understanding how temperature increases influence rainfall is vital for developing adaptation strategies. His research used an ensemble of 40 climate models to simulate African summer rainfall during the latter half of the 21st century (2050-2099) and compared the results with data from the historical period (1965-2014). Two climate scenarios were examined: one assuming moderate greenhouse gas emissions and another assuming very high emissions.

In both scenarios, rainfall across most of Africa was projected to rise by the end of the century, although the changes vary by region. The Sahara Desert showed the largest increase at 75%, while southeastern Africa could see about 25% more rainfall and south-central Africa about 17% more. In contrast, the southwestern part of the continent is expected to become drier, with precipitation decreasing by around 5%.

Surprising Outlook for a Dry Region 

“The Sahara is projected to almost double its historical precipitation levels, which is surprising for such a climatologically dry region,” said Taguela. “But while most models agree on the overall trend of wetter conditions, there’s still considerable uncertainty in how much rainfall they project. Improving these models is critical for building confidence in regional projections.”

The increase in precipitation is largely linked to the warming atmosphere. Higher temperatures allow the air to hold more moisture, which contributes to heavier rainfall in some areas. Shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns also affect how and where rain falls, sometimes leading to both wetter and drier regions across the continent.

“Understanding the physical mechanisms driving precipitation is essential for developing adaptation strategies that can withstand both wetter and drier futures,” Taguela said.

Taguela conducts his work as part of UIC’s Climate Research Lab, led by Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola. Their team continues to investigate how changing atmospheric conditions could reshape Africa’s environment, agriculture, and long-term sustainability.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/11/251102205025.htm

Scientists just found hidden life thriving beneath the Arctic ice

Source:University of Copenhagen

Summary:Melting Arctic ice is revealing a hidden world of nitrogen-fixing bacteria beneath the surface. These microbes, not the usual cyanobacteria, enrich the ocean with nitrogen, fueling algae growth that supports the entire marine food chain. As ice cover declines, both algae production and CO2 absorption may increase, altering the region’s ecological balance. The discovery could force scientists to revise predictions about Arctic climate feedbacks.Share:

    

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Hidden Life Thriving Beneath the Arctic Ice
Measurements of nitrogen fixation in the Arctic Ocean aboard RV Polarstern. Credit: Rebecca Duncan

The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is often seen as an environmental catastrophe. Yet researchers have found that the same melting process could help sustain life in unexpected ways. As the ice retreats, it creates conditions that encourage the growth of algae, the foundation of the Arctic’s marine food web.

Algae form the base of most ocean ecosystems, but they depend on nitrogen to grow — and nitrogen is scarce in Arctic waters. Now, an international team led by the University of Copenhagen has discovered that more nitrogen may become available than scientists once believed. This shift could reshape the future of marine life in the region and influence how much carbon the ocean can absorb.

A Hidden Source of Nitrogen Beneath the Ice

The study is the first to confirm that nitrogen fixation — a process in which certain bacteria transform nitrogen gas (N2) dissolved in seawater into ammonium — occurs beneath Arctic sea ice, even in its most remote and central areas. Ammonium not only helps these bacteria thrive but also nourishes algae and, by extension, the creatures that depend on them.

“Until now, it was believed that nitrogen fixation could not take place under the sea ice because it was assumed that the living conditions for the organisms that perform nitrogen fixation were too poor. We were wrong,” says Lisa W. von Friesen, lead author of the study and former PhD student at the Department of Biology.

Less Ice, More Life

Unlike most other oceans where cyanobacteria dominate nitrogen fixation, the Arctic Ocean relies on an entirely different group of bacteria known as non-cyanobacteria. The researchers found the highest nitrogen fixation rates along the ice edge — where melting is most intense. While these bacteria can operate beneath the ice, they flourish along the melting boundary. As climate change accelerates ice retreat, this expanding melt zone could allow more nitrogen to enter the ecosystem.

“In other words, the amount of available nitrogen in the Arctic Ocean has likely been underestimated, both today and for future projections. This could mean that the potential for algae production has also been underestimated as climate change continues to reduce the sea ice cover,” says von Friesen.

“Because algae are the primary food source for small animals such as planktonic crustaceans, which in turn are eaten by small fish, more algae can end up affecting the entire food chain,” she adds.

Could This Help the Planet Absorb More CO2?

This new nitrogen source could also influence how much carbon dioxide the Arctic Ocean takes in. More algae mean more photosynthesis, which enables the ocean to capture greater amounts of CO2.

“For the climate and the environment, this is likely good news. If algae production increases, the Arctic Ocean will absorb more CO2 because more CO2 will be bound in algae biomass. But biological systems are very complex, so it is hard to make firm predictions, because other mechanisms may pull in the opposite direction,” explains Lasse Riemann, professor at the Department of Biology and senior author of the study.

The researchers emphasize that nitrogen fixation should now be considered in models predicting the Arctic’s future. “We do not yet know whether the net effect will be beneficial for the climate. But it is clear that we should include an important process such as nitrogen fixation in the equation when we try to predict what will happen to the Arctic Ocean in the coming decades as sea ice declines,” adds Riemann.

How Nitrogen Fixation Works

In the Arctic, non-cyanobacteria perform nitrogen fixation. These microorganisms consume dissolved organic matter — often released by algae — and in turn, produce fixed nitrogen that promotes further algal growth. This exchange creates a small but vital nutrient loop beneath the ice.

Algae play a double role in the ecosystem: they are both the starting point of the marine food chain and natural absorbers of CO2. As they grow, they pull carbon dioxide from the air, which can later sink to the ocean floor as part of their biomass.

Behind the Discovery

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, involved scientists from the University of Copenhagen (Denmark), Linnaeus University (Sweden), Alfred Wegener Institute (Germany), Aix Marseille University (France), National Oceanography Centre (United Kingdom), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (Germany), Stockholm University (Sweden), and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden).

Their findings are based on two major research expeditions aboard the icebreakers IB Oden and RV Polarstern. Samples and measurements were collected at 13 sites across the central Arctic Ocean, including regions off northeast Greenland and north of Svalbard.

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/10/251020092826.htm

Is it ‘Zero Day’ for California Water?

Long before talk of climate change, California planned a system of canals and reservoirs to carry water to its dry areas. It’s no longer enough.

The Conversation

By The Conversation

U.S. News & World Report

Is it ‘Zero Day’ for California Water?

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FRESNO, CA - JULY 8: A portion (looking south) of the 152-mile Friant-Kern Canal, an aqueduct to convey water to augment agriculture irrigation on the east side of the San Joaquin Valley, is viewed on July 8, 2021, thirty minutes east of Fresno, California. Due to a lack of rain and snow in the Sierra Nevada during the past two years, California is experiencing one of the driest and hottest periods of weather in recorded history, forcing municipalities and farmers in the Central Valley to rethink their uses of water. As of this date, Governor Gavin Newsom declared a water "State of Emergency" for most state counties and has asked residents to reduce their use of water by 15%. (Photo by George Rose/Getty Images)

George Rose|Getty Images

A portion (looking south) of the 152-mile Friant-Kern Canal, an aqueduct to convey water to augment agriculture irrigation on the east side of the San Joaquin Valley, is viewed on July 8, 2021, thirty minutes east of Fresno, Calif.

By Lara B. Fowler

On Dec. 1, 2021, California triggered headlines heard around the world when officials announced how much water suppliers would be getting from the State Water Project. “California water districts to get 0% of requested supplies in an unprecedented decision,” one headline proclaimed. “No state water for California farms,” read another.

MORE: Solar Panels Over California’s Canals and Climate Payoff

The headlines suggested a comparison with the “Zero Day” announcement in Cape Town, South Africa, during a drought in 2018. That was the projected date when water would no longer be available at household taps without significant conservation. Cape Town avoided a water shutoff, barely.

While California’s announcement represents uncharted territory and is meant to promote water conservation in what is already a dry water year, there is more to the story.

California’s drought solution

California is a semi-arid state, so a dry year isn’t a surprise. But a recent state report observed that California is now in a dry pattern “interspersed with an occasional wet year.” The state suffered a three-year drought from 2007 to 2009, a five-year drought from 2012 to 2016, and now two dry years in a row; 2020 was the fifth-driest year on record, and 2021 was the second-driest.

Coming into the 2022 water year – which began Oct. 1 – the ground is dry, reservoirs are low and the prediction is for another dry year.

Over a century ago, well before climate change became evident, officials began planning ways to keep California’s growing cities and farms supplied with water. They developed a complex system of reservoirs and canals that funnel water from where it’s plentiful to where it’s needed.

Part of that system is the State Water Project.

First envisioned in 1919, the State Water Project delivers water from the relatively wetter and, at the time, less populated areas of Northern California to more populated and drier areas, mostly in Southern California. The State Water Project provides water for 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland, with about 70% for residential, municipal and industrial use and 30% for irrigation. There are 29 local water agencies – the state water contractors – that helped fund the State Water Project and in return receive water under a contract dating to the 1960s.

While the State Water Project is important to these local water agencies, it is usually not their only source of water. Nor is all water in California supplied through the State Water Project. Most water agencies have a portfolio of water supplies, which can include pumping groundwater.

What does 0% mean?

Originally, the State Water Project planned to deliver 4.2 million acre-feet of water each year. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons, or enough water to cover a football field in water 1 foot deep. An average California household uses around one-half to 1 acre-foot of water per year for both indoor and outdoor use. However, contractors that distribute water from the State Water Project have historically received only part of their allocations; the long-term average is 60%, with recent years much lower.

Based on water conditions each year, the state Department of Water Resources makes an initial allocation by Dec. 1 to help these state water contractors plan. As the year progresses, the state can adjust the allocation based on additional rain or snow and the amount of water in storage reservoirs. In 2010, for example, the allocation started at 5% and was raised to 50% by June. In 2014, the allocation started at 5%, dropped to 0% and then finished at 5%.

This year is the lowest initial allocation on record. According to the state Department of Water Resources, “unprecedented drought conditions” and “reservoirs at or near historic lows” led to this year’s headline-producing 0% allocation.

READ: California Water Supply Looks Promising in 2020, State Officials Say

That’s 0% of each state water contractor’s allocation; however, the department committed to meet “unmet minimum health and safety needs.” In other words, if the contractors cannot find water from other sources, they could request up to 55 gallons per capita per day of water to “meet domestic supply, fire protection and sanitation needs.” That’s about two-thirds of what the average American uses.

The department is also prioritizing water for salinity control in the Sacramento Bay Delta area, water for endangered species, water to reserve in storage and water for additional supply allocations if the weather conditions improve.

Under the current plan, there will be no water from the State Water Project for roughly 10% of California’s irrigated land. As a result, both municipal and agricultural suppliers will be seeking to conserve water, looking elsewhere for water supplies, or not delivering water. None are easy solutions.

The problem with pumping groundwater

To weather previous droughts, many water suppliers relied on groundwater, which led to increased costs for wells, declines in groundwater levels, land subsidence and degraded water quality. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act was enacted in 2014 to help address overpumping of groundwater, but it hasn’t turned these conditions around.

Those who can afford to dig deeper wells have done so, while others have no water as their wells have gone dry. During the 2012-2016 drought, the Public Policy Institute of California found that a majority of affected households that lost water access from their wells were in “small rural communities reliant on shallow wells – many of them communities of color.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom called on residents to voluntarily conserve 15% of their water during summer 2021. Statewide reductions were only 1.8% in July but jumped to 13.2% in October. This year’s snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, is far below normal.

Irrigators who depend on the federal Central Valley Project are facing similar drought conditions. Imports from the Colorado River system are also limited, as this basin is also facing its first-ever shortage declaration due to drought.

MORE: Western States Maintain Best Air Quality Levels

What’s next?

As someone who has worked in California and the Western U.S. on complex water issues, I am familiar with both drought and floods and the challenges they create. However, the widespread nature of this year’s drought – in California and beyond – makes the challenge even harder.

This “zero allocation” for California’s State Water Contractors is an unprecedented early warning, and likely a sign of what’s ahead.

A recent study warned that the snowpack in Western states like California may decline by up to 45% by 2050, with low- and no-snow years becoming increasingly common. Thirty-seven cities in California have already issued moratoriums on development because of water supply concerns.

If voluntary conservation does not work, enacting mandatory conservation measures like San Jose’s tough new drought rules may be needed. The state is now weighing emergency regulations on water use, and everyone is hoping for more precipitation.

Lara B. Fowler, Senior Lecturer in Law and Assistant Director for Outreach and Engagement, Penn State Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-12-10/california-faces-unprecedented-water-restrictions