The world has entered a new era of ‘water bankruptcy,’ U.N. report says

Researchers say this is not merely a temporary crisis, but a permanent failure that requires rethinking the world’s approach to water scarcity.

Iran’s Lake Urmia, once the largest lake in the Middle East, has dramatically shrunk due to prolonged drought, the damming of rivers feeding the lake, and extensive groundwater extraction in the surrounding area. (MORTEZA AMINOROAYAYI/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

By Sarah Kaplan

Climate change, pollution and decades of overuse have pushed the world into a state of “water bankruptcy,” leaving essential sources of fresh water irreparably damaged and billions of people without enough water to meet their basic needs, United Nations experts declared on Tuesday.

In a sweeping report from United Nations University (UNU), the international agency’s research arm, scientists compared humanity to a person plunging into financial ruin. Not only does the world overspend its annual water “income” — the renewable flows that come from rain and snow — but it has also exhausted the long-term “savings” stored in underground aquifers, glaciers and ecosystems. At the same time, people are allowing pollution from human waste, agriculture and industrial operations to contaminate the dwindling fresh water that remains — like someone setting fire to the last few dollars in their wallet.

Signs of this emergency are alarming and abundant, said lead author Kaveh Madani, director of the UNU Institute for Water, Environment and Health. More than half of the world’s large lakes are shrinking. Roughly 70 percent of underground aquifers are in long-term decline. Large-scale droughts have become more frequent and pervasive, costing an average of $307 billion annually. Some 4.4 billion people face water scarcity for at least one month a year.

Madani and his colleagues argue that it’s not sufficient to refer to the situation as “water stress” or a “water crisis” — language often used by the U.N. and other international institutions — because the challenge will not go away anytime soon.

Human activities have already caused irreversible damage to many of the systems that generate, regulate and store fresh water, the report says. Rising temperatures, driven mostly by the burning of fossil fuels, have altered precipitation patterns and increased the rate of evaporation from landscapes. Deforestation and development have destroyed the ecosystems that filter and clean rainwater. Overextraction is causing the collapse of subterranean aquifers that store groundwater, reducing their capacity to become recharged. And melting mountain glaciers, which accumulated over centuries or millennia, will not grow back in a human lifetime.

“What appears on the surface as a crisis is, in fact, a new baseline,” the report authors write. “Some losses are now unavoidable, and the central task is to prevent further irreversible damage while reorganizing the system around a smaller hydrological budget.”

Existing policies are too narrowly focused on improving sanitation and drinking water and helping industries to become incrementally more efficient, the report says. Ahead of an upcoming United Nations water conference in the United Arab Emirates, it calls on leaders to declare a “global water bankruptcy” and adopt a new approach to managing the world’s dwindling supply of safe water. Otherwise, it warns, the world will slide deeper into a future of food shortages, disease outbreaks and water-fueled conflict.Ask The Post AIDive deeper

Madani, who was born in Tehran, became convinced of the need for a new approach to water management after watching a decades-old black-and-white video about shortages in the Iranian capital. The narrator referred to the situation as a “crisis” — the same language being used now to describe the multiyear drought that has threatened Tehran’s water supply and prompted President Masoud Pezeshkian to contemplate evacuating the city.

“How long can we call something like this crisis?” Madani said. “A crisis means a shock — it’s an anomaly that must be addressed urgently, but still you have hopes that the baseline can be restored.”

“I think it’s a big lie if you’re communicating to the public that this is a temporary situation,” he added. What Iran — and the world — are truly facing is “a postcrisis situation of failure.”

The water shortages in Iran — which experts have linked to human-caused climate change as well as surging demand and mismanagement of limited resources — have led to rationing, power cuts and increased food prices. The economic strain helped fuel the mass protest movement currently gripping the country, which in turn has prompted a brutal crackdown by government forces.

These issues increasingly affect countries of all sizes and income levels, said Melissa Scanlan, an environmental law expert and director of the Center for Water Policy at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, who did not contribute to the report.

Major urban areas — from Cape Town, South Africa to Chennai, India to Mexico City — have teetered on the brink of “day zero” events, when water supplies fall so low that millions of people’s taps run dry. Pervasive droughts have caused spikes in the prices of foods such as Mediterranean olive oil and California vegetables, while saltwater contamination from rising seas has caused billions of dollars in damage to rice paddies and fruit farms in Vietnam. Large hydropower dams from Zambia to Nevada have seen reservoir levels fall so low they lose their ability to produce electricity. And some places have pumped so much water from their aquifers that their land is sinking — damaging infrastructure and making these areas more vulnerable to floods.Ask The Post AIDive deeper

“The global scope of the report is useful in showing repeat patterns,” Scanlan said. “It’s not just the Southern Hemisphere, it’s not just the Middle East. There is something larger at play in terms of how we’re treating water across the world.”

The report also shows how water problems are already wreaking economic and political havoc. Western U.S. states are locked in a years-long battle over the dwindling Colorado River. Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia are at odds over a massive new dam on a major tributary of the Nile. Research shows that undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States increases amid warming-fueled droughts.

“Lack of water means lack of food,” Madani said. “It means famine, unemployment, chaos, revolution.”

A lot of this geopolitical turmoil comes down to what Madani calls a “mismatch between water availability and water consumption.” The laws, contracts and treaties that govern water use — such as the century-old compact determining allocation of the Colorado River — were based on a climate that no longer exists, she said. Farmers, cities and industrial water users trade blame over who is taking more than their fair share, without acknowledging that the overall pie has shrunk. Typical measures to address shortfalls, such as drilling deeper wells or diverting more water from rivers, can end up making the problem worse.

Much the way a company filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy must restructure operations, renegotiate contracts and create a new plan to pay debts, the world should reassess how much water is actually available and prioritize among competing claims, the U.N. report says. In some cases, that might involve limiting new development in water-stressed cities or restricting the growth of water-intensive industries. World leaders must also protect the forests, wetlands and other ecosystems that pay a crucial role in Earth’s water cycle.

The biggest challenges — and the biggest opportunity for change — lie in the agriculture sector, which accounts for 70 percent of humanity’s water usage, said Rabi Mohtar, a hydrologist who leads the Water-Energy-Food Nexus Research Group at Texas A&M University.

Governments may need to impose restrictions on irrigation and groundwater pumping or require farmers to shift to less-thirsty crops, he said. They should also implement regulations to prevent pesticides, fertilizers and other forms of agricultural runoff from polluting the shrinking water supply.

Mohtar, who was not involved in the U.N. report, expressed skepticism about the rhetorical value of declaring “water bankruptcy.” He worried that the terminology might discourage people from taking action, because it sends the message that humanity has already failed.

But he agreed with the basic premise that people have drastically exceeded the planet’s capacity to produce clean, fresh water.

“The time when we have abundance is over,” Mohtar said. “I would like to see accountability to every single drop.”

Rethinking the world’s approach to managing water will have far-reaching economic and social consequences, the U.N. report acknowledges. Arid nations might need to import food rather than trying to grow it themselves. Farmers in areas that can no longer support agriculture may need to pursue other livelihoods. If changes aren’t implemented in a manner that is equitable and inclusive, the report said, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people will inevitably suffer the most.

Yet Madani emphasized that addressing the world’s water challenges will yield “co-benefits” in other areas. Restoring wetlands can help reduce dust storms, improving air quality and public health. Techniques to boost farmland’s ability to retain water also helps the soils absorb more carbon.

“In a fragmented world, water might be an excuse for bringing people together,” he said.

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Long before talk of climate change, California planned a system of canals and reservoirs to carry water to its dry areas. It’s no longer enough.

By The Conversation

Is it ‘Zero Day’ for California Water?

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George Rose|Getty Images

A portion (looking south) of the 152-mile Friant-Kern Canal, an aqueduct to convey water to augment agriculture irrigation on the east side of the San Joaquin Valley, is viewed on July 8, 2021, thirty minutes east of Fresno, Calif.

By Lara B. Fowler

On Dec. 1, 2021, California triggered headlines heard around the world when officials announced how much water suppliers would be getting from the State Water Project. “California water districts to get 0% of requested supplies in an unprecedented decision,” one headline proclaimed. “No state water for California farms,” read another.

MORE: Solar Panels Over California’s Canals and Climate Payoff

The headlines suggested a comparison with the “Zero Day” announcement in Cape Town, South Africa, during a drought in 2018. That was the projected date when water would no longer be available at household taps without significant conservation. Cape Town avoided a water shutoff, barely.

While California’s announcement represents uncharted territory and is meant to promote water conservation in what is already a dry water year, there is more to the story.

California’s drought solution

California is a semi-arid state, so a dry year isn’t a surprise. But a recent state report observed that California is now in a dry pattern “interspersed with an occasional wet year.” The state suffered a three-year drought from 2007 to 2009, a five-year drought from 2012 to 2016, and now two dry years in a row; 2020 was the fifth-driest year on record, and 2021 was the second-driest.

Coming into the 2022 water year – which began Oct. 1 – the ground is dry, reservoirs are low and the prediction is for another dry year.

Over a century ago, well before climate change became evident, officials began planning ways to keep California’s growing cities and farms supplied with water. They developed a complex system of reservoirs and canals that funnel water from where it’s plentiful to where it’s needed.

Part of that system is the State Water Project.

First envisioned in 1919, the State Water Project delivers water from the relatively wetter and, at the time, less populated areas of Northern California to more populated and drier areas, mostly in Southern California. The State Water Project provides water for 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland, with about 70% for residential, municipal and industrial use and 30% for irrigation. There are 29 local water agencies – the state water contractors – that helped fund the State Water Project and in return receive water under a contract dating to the 1960s.

While the State Water Project is important to these local water agencies, it is usually not their only source of water. Nor is all water in California supplied through the State Water Project. Most water agencies have a portfolio of water supplies, which can include pumping groundwater.

What does 0% mean?

Originally, the State Water Project planned to deliver 4.2 million acre-feet of water each year. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons, or enough water to cover a football field in water 1 foot deep. An average California household uses around one-half to 1 acre-foot of water per year for both indoor and outdoor use. However, contractors that distribute water from the State Water Project have historically received only part of their allocations; the long-term average is 60%, with recent years much lower.

Based on water conditions each year, the state Department of Water Resources makes an initial allocation by Dec. 1 to help these state water contractors plan. As the year progresses, the state can adjust the allocation based on additional rain or snow and the amount of water in storage reservoirs. In 2010, for example, the allocation started at 5% and was raised to 50% by June. In 2014, the allocation started at 5%, dropped to 0% and then finished at 5%.

This year is the lowest initial allocation on record. According to the state Department of Water Resources, “unprecedented drought conditions” and “reservoirs at or near historic lows” led to this year’s headline-producing 0% allocation.

READ: California Water Supply Looks Promising in 2020, State Officials Say

That’s 0% of each state water contractor’s allocation; however, the department committed to meet “unmet minimum health and safety needs.” In other words, if the contractors cannot find water from other sources, they could request up to 55 gallons per capita per day of water to “meet domestic supply, fire protection and sanitation needs.” That’s about two-thirds of what the average American uses.

The department is also prioritizing water for salinity control in the Sacramento Bay Delta area, water for endangered species, water to reserve in storage and water for additional supply allocations if the weather conditions improve.

Under the current plan, there will be no water from the State Water Project for roughly 10% of California’s irrigated land. As a result, both municipal and agricultural suppliers will be seeking to conserve water, looking elsewhere for water supplies, or not delivering water. None are easy solutions.

The problem with pumping groundwater

To weather previous droughts, many water suppliers relied on groundwater, which led to increased costs for wells, declines in groundwater levels, land subsidence and degraded water quality. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act was enacted in 2014 to help address overpumping of groundwater, but it hasn’t turned these conditions around.

Those who can afford to dig deeper wells have done so, while others have no water as their wells have gone dry. During the 2012-2016 drought, the Public Policy Institute of California found that a majority of affected households that lost water access from their wells were in “small rural communities reliant on shallow wells – many of them communities of color.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom called on residents to voluntarily conserve 15% of their water during summer 2021. Statewide reductions were only 1.8% in July but jumped to 13.2% in October. This year’s snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, is far below normal.

Irrigators who depend on the federal Central Valley Project are facing similar drought conditions. Imports from the Colorado River system are also limited, as this basin is also facing its first-ever shortage declaration due to drought.

MORE: Western States Maintain Best Air Quality Levels

What’s next?

As someone who has worked in California and the Western U.S. on complex water issues, I am familiar with both drought and floods and the challenges they create. However, the widespread nature of this year’s drought – in California and beyond – makes the challenge even harder.

This “zero allocation” for California’s State Water Contractors is an unprecedented early warning, and likely a sign of what’s ahead.

A recent study warned that the snowpack in Western states like California may decline by up to 45% by 2050, with low- and no-snow years becoming increasingly common. Thirty-seven cities in California have already issued moratoriums on development because of water supply concerns.

If voluntary conservation does not work, enacting mandatory conservation measures like San Jose’s tough new drought rules may be needed. The state is now weighing emergency regulations on water use, and everyone is hoping for more precipitation.

Lara B. Fowler, Senior Lecturer in Law and Assistant Director for Outreach and Engagement, Penn State Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-12-10/california-faces-unprecedented-water-restrictions